Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
It has been an interesting first half for the stock market. Trade and tariff headlines have largely
driven market action, both up and down. Additionally, increasing concern that growth is
slowing here in the U.S. is also influencing traders’ outlook. Paradoxically this “bad” news is
good news for the stock market as it increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal
Reserve later this month.
I think it is a safe bet that as the Presidential election process heats up, every effort will be
made by the current administration to keep the economy humming along. If this proves to be
the case and the economy maintains a decent growth number, markets are likely to react
positively. With earnings season upon us, we should soon be able to learn more about public
company plans for upcoming capital spending and their overall outlook for the balance of 2019,
helping us gauge the health of the economy. In addition to the economy, our focus for the
second half of the year will remain on trade, tariffs, and the Federal Reserve.
I hope you are all enjoying these sunny days. Please don’t hesitate to call anytime to discuss
your investments or other aspects of your finances.
2019 YTD Returns for Key Asset Classes and a Diversified Portfolio as of June 30 th , 2019:
|Global High Yield Bonds||9.5%|
|US Large Cap||18.5%|
|US Small Cap||17.0%|
|Diversified 60/40 Portfolio||12.3%|
(Defined as 60% Equity, 35% Bond, 5% Commodity) Source: JPMGTM 3Q2019